It would be wise to start stockpiling nordic ski wax for low-snow conditions, if such a product exists. An El Nino, warmer than normal water in the Pacific Ocean near the equater, has been forecast for this winter and that would mean less snow than normal for Milwaukee, Madison and the rest of the Midwest, based on historical patterns.

Jeff Craven, science and operations officer for the National Weather Service in Sullivan, researched six El Nino winters, 1951, 1957, 1963, 1965, 1972 and 1976. Each of those El Nino winters followed a La Nina year, when the waters in the Eastern Pacific were warmer than normal, matching the conditions expected this winter. (His report can be found here).

Based on his findings, Madison would be expected to receive 10 inches of snow in December, 6 in January and 4 in February. That totals 13 inches less than the 30-year averages.

The Milwaukee snowfall projects to be 14 inches in December, 12 in January and 6 in February, about 6 inches below the 30-year average.

The biggest drop off in snowfall would show up in January and February in both cities.

The temperatures, based on Craven’s research, are forecast to be colder in December.

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